ماه: جولای 2020

The postponement caps a month of misery for opposition groups since China imposed a national security law on the city, which has strangled a long-running antigovernment movement that challenged Beijing’s authority.

Prominent pro-Beijing politicians had called for the vote to be postponed; they also cited public health risks. But the opposition has said the decision is part of a continuing political crackdown. Pro-democracy groups were looking to the election as a way for the public to express dissatisfaction over the national security law, potentially giving them a majority in the legislature for the first time since the city’s handover to Beijing and greater power to veto or obstruct government initiatives.

“This is the most difficult decision that I have had to make in the last seven months,” Mrs. Lam said. “There are absolutely no political considerations in these measures. I’ve been so busy tracking the virus situation in recent days, I hardly have time to see how the election competition is going.”

Postponing the election also raises the possibility of further retaliatory measures from governments that have been critical of China’s aggressive moves to grab more control over the city. Foreign ministers from Australia, the U.K. and U.S.—including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo—have said they would watch Hong Kong’s legislative elections closely.

On Tuesday, Mr. Pompeo—in a joint statement with Defense Secretary Mark Esper and their Australian counterparts—“reiterated their support for the people of Hong Kong to be able to elect Legislative Council representatives via a genuinely free and fair election, which is credible and peaceful, on September 6.”

Public health experts have said there is no justification for a year-long delay, pointing to a number of measures that could mitigate risk, including social distancing at poll stations and staggered voting times. South Korea held national elections in April, and Singapore, another financial hub, held general elections earlier in July after a weekslong lockdown.

On Friday, Mrs. Lam said the electoral process in Singapore had significant differences to the one in Hong Kong. For example, Singaporeans are allowed to vote at consulates overseas and Singapore also allows for political broadcasting, while Hong Kong bars such advertisements. One of the reasons Mrs. Lam cited for postponing the elections was that candidates wouldn’t be able to safely hold events to canvas votes. She also cited other jurisdictions that have delayed elections due to the pandemic, including some in New South Wales state in Australia.

She said she didn’t understand why her postponement decision, made with the public interest in mind, would open Hong Kong up to retaliation from other countries.

The move to postpone had been expected for days. Hong Kong has been battling its most severe coronavirus outbreak since the disease first surfaced in the city in January and much of the normal activity has been curtailed. Civil servants are working from home and gyms and bars have been ordered to close. On Friday, the city reported its 10th straight day of local confirmed cases in excess of 100. On Wednesday, public gatherings were limited to two people, down from four.

Still, opposition figures and political observers questioned the length of the delay.

“While the official excuse is the new wave of cases, it is almost certainly based on political considerations,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London. “The Hong Kong and Chinese governments are concerned that the general public may well use the elections to air their disapproval of the security law and thus give pan-democratic elements a majority control of the legislature for the first time since 1997.”

Pro-democracy groups had aimed to take control of the 70-seat legislature following a year of antigovernment protests. A majority would have given opposition groups the power to disrupt or vote down government proposals. Half of the 70 seats in the legislature are decided by direct election. Others are distributed among various business and social constituencies that pick their own candidates.

The postponement also leaves a legislative vacuum for the next 12 months. While Friday’s measure was made using emergency regulations, Mrs. Lam said those don’t allow her to ensure a continued term for current lawmakers. She said she had sent an urgent report to central authorities to seek their advice and added that they were supportive of her decision and would make a submission to China’s top lawmaking body for a solution.

Beijing’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, in a statement, described the postponement as a “very necessary, reasonable and lawful” measure and said the decision wouldn’t “harm the democratic rights and freedoms enjoyed by Hong Kong residents in accordance with the law.”

The office said the standing committee of the National People’s Congress will issue a decision “as soon as possible” on how to fill legislative vacancies. The standing committee is scheduled to meet from Aug. 8 to Aug. 11.

The office also said Beijing had decided, at the Hong Kong government’s request, to send mainland personnel to the city to help conduct large-scale nucleic-acid testing and assist in the construction of temporary quarantine and treatment centers.

In the short run, postponing elections may sap the momentum of the opposition movement, which was already reeling this week from the arrests of leaders of pro-independence groups, the disqualification of a dozen pro-democracy candidates from running in the elections and the firing of a university academic who was a key figure in organizing opposition activities.

The postponement, however, may not lead to a boost in popular support for pro-Beijing political parties and the government. Whatever support the government has could decline as authorities use the national security law more liberally to stifle dissent in Hong Kong.

“No one would believe that the postponement is solely due to the pandemic,” said Alvin Yeung, a sitting legislator whose candidacy for a new term was disqualified by election officials on Thursday.

Mr. Yeung, the leader of the Civic Party, questioned whether Mrs. Lam’s administration had exhausted all possible avenues to allow a safe election to continue.

“The only other logical explanation is that they’re also trying to buy time—they foresee a landslide win for the democratic camp and they want to prevent that from happening,” he said.

—Chun Han Wong contributed to this article.

Write to Natasha Khan at [email protected]

However, recent statistics suggest Europe is having a “much bigger snapback and there are some indicators that it may be getting ahead [of the U.S.],” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank.

The U.S. economy is being supported by a massive fiscal stimulus that will likely translate into a 2020 government budget deficit roughly twice as large as Europe’s, Mr. Schmieding added.

“The U.S. is paying with fiscal stimulus for its failure to tackle the pandemic decisively,” he said.

While the U.S. grapples with tens of thousands of new infections each day, Europe has largely brought the virus under control, even as it has eased restrictions and reopened internal borders, notwithstanding an increase in cases in countries such as France and Spain.

Confidence appears to be gaining among European consumers and businesses, supported by the billions that governments have lavished on job-protection schemes, aggressive stimulus from the European Central Bank, and a groundbreaking €1.8 trillion ($2.1 trillion) spending package unveiled by EU leaders last week.

The EU stimulus will push up economic growth in Greece, long one of the continent’s weakest performers, by about 2 percentage points a year for the next six years, the country’s central bank governor, Yannis Stournaras, said.

“It was something unexpected, so this is going to have a very positive impact on the Greek economy,” Mr. Stournaras said this week.

The euro has been on a tear against the dollar in recent weeks, rising close to a two-year high. That reflects both investors’ confidence in Europe and the U.S.’s uneven progress in halting fresh virus infections.

“The business in Europe has been and currently is stronger than in the U.S.,” Bjørn Gulden, chief executive of German sports-goods maker Puma SE, told reporters Wednesday. In the U.S., demand has varied widely from state to state, he said.

However, analysts at Commerzbank expect the U.S. to remain ahead, with its economy seen contracting by 4.5% for 2020 overall, versus 7% in the eurozone. The U.S. economy will likely grow by 4% in 2021, compared with 5% for the eurozone, they said.

Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, said that according to his order books, the U.S. was pulling slightly ahead.

“The U.S. is recovering faster than Europe, we are seeing that from our customer bases,” Mr. Mittal said, attributing this primarily to American auto makers.

Europe still faces challenges. The region is highly dependent on exports and tourism, neither of which will recover fully until the virus is under control around the world. In Southern Europe, businesses tend to be smaller and more vulnerable, and governments need to service debts that have been inflated by the mammoth costs of containing the pandemic.

Borrowing costs have so far been kept in check by aggressive government-bond purchases by the ECB, but central-bank officials have stressed that support is only temporary.

Pockets of infection are resurfacing, including in northeastern Spain, dealing a blow to the nation’s large tourism sector. Foreign tourism makes up around 14% of GDP in Greece, 12% in Portugal and 8% in Spain, according to research firm Capital Economics.

Tourists are staying away, with occupancy rates of holiday accommodation below 30% in Italy, Greece and Spain. Spain lost one million jobs between April and June, its biggest ever quarterly decline, and the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 15.3%, official data indicated Tuesday.

That is widening the divide between Europe’s industry-rich North and its poorer South, whose economies had to contend with a worse health crisis, a deeper economic collapse and high debts that deter intensive stimulus. Spain’s economy contracted by 18.5% in the second quarter versus the previous three months, and Italy’s by 12.4%, as Madrid and Rome imposed some of the world’s strictest lockdowns.

Germany’s economy performed better, shrinking by 10.1%, due to a relatively light lockdown and aggressive government spending.

McDonald’s Corp CEO Chris Kempczinski said Tuesday he saw strong opportunities in Europe, “where I think there may be some independent restaurant units that are having some bigger challenges.”

He added that: “In many markets around the world, most notably in the U.S., the public-health situation appears to be worsening.”

In France, the EU’s second-largest economy, consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in July amid signs of a rebound in Covid-19 infections, a monthly survey suggested Wednesday. The French economy contracted by 13.8% in the second quarter versus the previous three months amid weak exports and household consumption, official data showed on Friday.

Still, recent French data suggest “a V-shaped recovery is on the cards for the third quarter,” said Julien Manceaux, an economist with ING Bank.

Europe’s governments face a challenge in how to withdraw massive emergency support measures like job-furlough schemes and credit guarantees without hurting the economic recovery. These programs are costly and over time they could keep alive businesses and jobs that should disappear, but governments can’t immediately pull the plug, said Marion Amiot, an economist with S&P Global Ratings in London.

But recent mobility data from Google suggest that Europeans are currently more willing to shop than Americans. Some European households have accumulated savings that they can now spend, since many were paid but confined to their homes, said Ms. Amiot.

In Italy, business confidence rose in June, with more private firms at any time since late 2018 expecting an increase in profit over the next year, according to IHS Markit.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV has been ramping up production over the past few months after completely shutting down its factories in mid-March as Italy battled what at the time was the world’s worst coronavirus outbreak. About three-fourths of employees in production who were working at the end of February are back in the factories. Several of the company’s large Italian assembly plants, including one in the deep South that produces the Jeep Renegade and Compass as well as the Fiat 500X crossover, are working at full capacity.

Volkswagen AG sales chief, Christian Dahlheim, said Thursday there was a clear positive trend in Western Europe as restrictions loosened and car dealerships reopened. In Germany, order entries for June were above last year, he said.

The recovery is less pronounced in the U.S. than in Europe, partly because demand there didn’t collapse quite as dramatically as in Europe during the shutdowns, Mr. Dahlheim said.

—Ruth Bender in Berlin, Eric Sylvers in Milan and Alistair MacDonald in London contributed to this article.

Write to Tom Fairless at [email protected]

Friday’s estimates said North Korea’s farming and fishing output rose by 1.4%. Construction increased by 2.9%, as leader Kim Jong Un accelerated development of tourist resorts, homes and power plants. Pyongyang’s mining sector shrunk by 0.7%, while manufacturing fell by 1.1%. Gross national income was projected to be about $32 billion, less than 2% of South Korea’s.

The estimates don’t take into account figures on the Communist country’s underground economy—which includes undeclared street markets known as “jangmadangs” and activities of unofficial private corporations known as “donjus,” or “money masters.”

“This means that the central bank figures are likely a slight overestimate,” said Kim Byung-yeon, an economics professor at Seoul National University, who has written a book examining the Kim regime’s economy.

Prof. Kim said he suspected the underground economy has slowed, as income from exports dried up due to sanctions, resulting in less spendable cash for the general public, which in turn would mean less revenue for merchants and the “donjus.”

North Korea’s economy contracted in 2018 and 2017 by 4.1% and 3.5% respectively, according to Seoul’s central bank, largely due to international sanctions severely restricting trade with North Korea and Pyongyang’s access to global financial networks.

Droughts, floods and erratic weather conditions exacerbated the economic slowdown, by affecting harvests and food supplies, according to aid groups. North Korea’s 2018 harvest was the worst in a decade, according to a January Red Cross report, resulting in food insecurity last year.

North Korea’s growth in 2019 won’t continue if the global pandemic persists, economists said. The North has repeatedly claimed it has zero coronavirus infections, but it has imposed lockdowns, quarantines and tightened security on its border with China, undermining trade with that country.

North Korea relies on China for more than 60% of its exports and over 95% of imports, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a website tracking international trade data. North Korean smugglers separately bring in much-needed daily necessities and foreign currency through the border.

Pyongyang officials last week locked down the city of Kaesong, located just north of the inter-Korean border, after a North Korean defector who had resettled in the South three years ago was found to have secretly re-entered his homeland.

North Korean officials said they suspected the defector to be a carrier of the virus, though South Korean health authorities later declared that people who had closely interacted with the defector weren’t infected.

On Thursday, the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, one of Pyongyang’s state-controlled media outlets, said the country still had no Covid-19 infections.

North Korea’s Choe Ryong Hae, the official deputy of Mr. Kim, recently visited the city, according to Pyongyang’s state media this week, to examine prevention measures being undertaken by health officials.

South Korean military officials overseeing the inter-Korean border acknowledged Friday that the defector had bypassed guard posts and sentries, despite having been detected seven times on closed-circuit and thermal cameras. A South Korean marine division commander was relieved of his duties following the incident, Seoul officials said.

—Kwanwoo Jun contributed to this article.

Write to Andrew Jeong at [email protected]

اما آمار اخیر نشان می دهد اروپا است که با داشتن یک “بسیار بزرگتر snapback و وجود دارد برخی از شاخص های که ممکن است گرفتن پیش [ایالات متحده آمریکا] گفت:” هولگر Schmieding اقتصاددان ارشد در Berenberg بانک.

اقتصاد ایالات متحده است که پشتیبانی شده توسط یک محرک های مالی که به احتمال زیاد ترجمه به 2020 کسری بودجه دولت تقریبا دو بار به عنوان بزرگ به عنوان در اروپا آقای Schmieding اضافه شده است.

“ایالات متحده با محرک های مالی برای شکست خود را به مقابله با این بیماری همه گیر قاطعانه” او گفت:.

در حالی که ایالات متحده هایش با دهها هزار نفر از عفونت های جدید هر روز اروپا تا حد زیادی به ارمغان آورد این ویروس را تحت کنترل و حتی آن را به عنوان کاسته محدودیت و بازگشایی مرزهای داخلی با وجود افزایش موارد در کشورهایی مانند فرانسه و اسپانیا.

اعتماد به نفس به نظر می رسد برای به دست آوردن توان در میان مصرف کنندگان اروپایی و کسب و کار پشتیبانی شده توسط میلیاردها دلار که دولت باید lavished در کار-طرح های حفاظت, مهاجم محرک اقتصادی از سوی بانک مرکزی اروپا و پیشگامانه €1.8 تریلیون دلار ($2.1 تریلیون دلار) هزینه های بسته بندی پرده برداری توسط رهبران اتحادیه اروپا هفته گذشته است.

اتحادیه اروپا محرک فشار خواهد شد تا رشد اقتصادی در یونان به يکی از قاره ضعیف ترین نوازندگان در حدود 2 درصد در سال برای شش سال آینده این کشور در بانک مرکزی و فرماندار Yannis Stournaras گفت.

“آن چیزی غیر منتظره این است که به تاثیر بسیار مثبتی بر روی اقتصاد یونان” آقای Stournaras گفت: در این هفته.

یورو شده است در یک قطره اشک در برابر دلار در هفته های اخیر افزایش نزدیک به دو سال به بالا. که هر دو نشان دهنده اطمینان سرمایه گذاران در اروپا و آمریکا را ناهموار پیشرفت در توقف های تازه عفونت ویروس.

“کسب و کار در اروپا شده است و در حال حاضر قوی تر از در ایالات متحده” Bjørn Gulden, مدیر اجرایی, آلمانی, ورزشی, کالا, ساز, Puma SE, به خبرنگاران گفت: روز شنبه. در ایالات متحده تقاضا کرده است به طور گسترده ای متنوع از دولت به دولت ،

تحلیلگران در Commerzbank انتظار ایالات متحده را به جلوتر با اقتصاد آن دیده می شود پیمانکاری با 4.5 درصد در سال 2020 به طور کلی در مقابل 7 ٪ در یورو. اقتصاد ایالات متحده به احتمال زیاد رشد 4 درصد در سال 2021 در مقایسه با 5% را برای منطقۀ آنها گفت.

لاکشمی میتال, مدیر عامل شرکت ArcelorMittal بزرگترین فولادسازی گفت که با توجه به سفارش کتاب, ایالات متحده کشیده شد کمی جلوتر.

“ایالات متحده در دوره بهبودی سریع تر از اروپا ما شاهد این هستیم که از ما مشتری پایگاه” آقای میتال گفت: نسبت دادن این در درجه اول به آمریکا خودرو سازان.

اروپا هنوز با چالش های عمده ای. منطقه است که به شدت وابسته به صادرات و گردشگری نه از آن بهبود می یابند به طور کامل تا زمانی که این ویروس را تحت کنترل در سراسر جهان است. در جنوب اروپا, کسب و کار تمایل به کوچک تر و آسیب پذیر تر و دولت نیاز به سرویس بدهی های عظیم شده اند که باد ماموت هزینه های حاوی این بیماری همه گیر.

هزینه های استقراض را تا کنون نگه داشته شده است در بررسی های تهاجمی دولت خرید اوراق قرضه توسط بانک مرکزی اروپا اما مرکزی-بانک مقامات تاکید کرده اند که حمایت است تنها به طور موقت.

جیب عفونت های پوستی از جمله در شمال شرقی کشور اسپانیا, برخورد یک ضربه به ملت بزرگ بخش گردشگری. خارجی گردشگری باعث می شود تا حدود 14 درصد از تولید ناخالص داخلی در یونان 12 درصد در پرتغال و 8 درصد در اسپانیا و با توجه به تحقیقات شرکت سرمایه اقتصاد است.

گردشگران در حال دور ماندن با نرخ اشغال از محل اقامت تعطیلات زیر 30 درصد در ایتالیا و یونان و اسپانیا. اسپانیا از دست داد یک میلیون شغل بین آوریل و ژوئن, بزرگترین تا کنون سه ماهه کاهش و نرخ بیکاری افزایش یافت و به دو سال اخیر از 15.3% اطلاعات رسمی نشان داد سه شنبه.

که گسترش شکاف بین اروپا و صنعت غنی شمالی و فقیر جنوب که اقتصاد تا به حال به رقابت با بدتر بهداشت بحران عمیق تر سقوط اقتصادی و بدهی بالا که جلوگیری از فشرده محرک. اقتصاد اسپانیا قرارداد با 18.5 درصد در سه ماهه دوم در مقابل سه ماه گذشته و ایتالیا با 12.4 درصد مادرید و رم تحمیل برخی از جهان دقیقترین مستندات.

اقتصاد آلمان انجام بهتر و کاهش 10.1% با توجه به نسبتا سبک مستند و تهاجمی هزینه های دولت.

مک دونالد مدیر عامل کریس Kempczinski گفت: او را دیدم قوی فرصت ها در اروپا “که در آن من فکر می کنم ممکن است برخی از مستقل رستوران واحد است که با داشتن برخی از چالش های بزرگتر.”

او اضافه کرد که: “در بسیاری از بازارهای سراسر جهان به ویژه در ایالات متحده بهداشت عمومی وضعیت به نظر می رسد بدتر شدن است.”

در فرانسه و اتحادیه اروپا دومین اقتصاد اعتماد مصرف کننده به طور غیر منتظره کاهش یافته و در ماه جولای در میان نشانه هایی از بهبود در Covid-19 عفونت های ماهانه بررسی پیشنهاد چهار شنبه. اقتصاد فرانسه قرارداد با 13.8 درصد در سه ماهه دوم در مقابل سه ماه گذشته در میان ضعف صادرات و مصرف خانوار اطلاعات رسمی نشان داد در روز جمعه.

هنوز اخیر فرانسه داده ها نشان می دهد “V شکل بازیابی در کارت برای سه ماهه سوم” گفت: Julien Manceaux یک اقتصاددان با بانک ING.

در اروپا دولت صورت یک چالش در نحوه برداشت عظیم اضطراری حمایت از اقدامات مانند کار کردند و با طرح تضمین های اعتباری بدون صدمه زدن به بهبود اقتصادی. این برنامه های پر هزینه هستند و در طول زمان آنها می تواند زنده نگه داشتن کسب و کار و شغل است که باید ناپدید می شوند اما دولت نمی تواند بلافاصله جلو پلاگین گفت: ماریون Amiot یک اقتصاددان با S&P رتبه جهانی در لندن است.

اما اخیر تحرک داده ها از گوگل نشان می دهد که اروپایی ها در حال حاضر بیشتر مایل به فروشگاه از آمریکایی ها. برخی از خانواده های اروپایی جمع شده اند پس انداز است که آنها می توانند در حال حاضر صرف از بسیاری از آنها پرداخت می شود اما محدود به خانه های خود گفت: خانم Amiot.

در ایتالیا, کسب و کار, اعتماد به نفس افزایش در ماه ژوئن با بیشتر شرکت های خصوصی در هر زمان از اواخر سال 2018 انتظار افزایش سود در سال آینده با توجه به IHS Markit. اقتصاد کشور را کاهش 12.4 درصد در سه ماه منتهی به ژوئن در مقابل سه ماهه قبلی اطلاعات رسمی نشان داد.

فیات کرایسلر اتومبیل NV شده است ramping تا تولید بیش از گذشته چند ماه پس از به طور کامل خاموش کردن آن کارخانه در اواسط ماه مارس ایتالیا مبارزه چه در زمان بدترین شیوع کروناویروس. حدود سه چهارم از کارکنان در تولید که در پایان ماه فوریه به پشت در کارخانه ها. چندین شرکت بزرگ ایتالیایی مونتاژ گیاهان از جمله یکی در جنوب عمیق است که تولید جیپ Renegade و قطب نما و همچنین فیات 500X متقاطع در حال کار در ظرفیت کامل.

فولکس واگن AG فروش ارشد مسیحی Dahlheim گفت: پنج شنبه وجود دارد “روشن روند مثبت” در اروپای غربی به عنوان محدودیت های سست و نمایندگی خودرو بازگشایی شد. در آلمان سفارش مطالب برای ژوئن شد بالاتر از سال گذشته است.

بازیابی کمتر است, در آمریکا از اروپا تا حدودی به دلیل تقاضا وجود ندارد فروپاشی کاملا به طور چشمگیری به عنوان در اروپا در آتن آقای Dahlheim گفت.

— اموزش بندر در برلین اریک Sylvers در میلان و Alistair مک دونالد در لندن کمک به این مقاله است.

نوشتن به تام فیرلس در [email protected]